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Police
and Statistics
and Statistics
"Torture numbers, and they'll
confess to anything."
confess to anything."
| ~Gregg Easterbrook |
The incredible advancements in computer technology have made the
potential for statistical analysis endless. It's too bad no one has found a
way to remove people from the process. People will always be the
determining factor for the accuracy, or near accuracy, of statistical
compilations.
I have to yawn every time I see academic research where crime
statistics are heavily relied upon to validate theories and conclusions.
While most people would agree that academics feel intellectually
superior, and not without reason, they still rely on statistical data
provided by the less intellectual among us.
You would think that since crime is such a critical social issue that
affects everyone to some degree, every police department would make
extraordinary efforts to accurately report crime. In fact, the FBI's
Uniform Crime Reporting System has existed for decades. The system
is superbly designed to accurately classify types and instances of crime
committed in the United States.
While a decentralized police structure is vital for the preservation of a
democratic republic, it performs poorly when it comes to accurately
documenting crimes. First, the UCR is voluntary; although, enough
police departments report via UCR to make the system a good measure
of crime. However, how those police departments report crime
determines its accuracy, and here's where the train goes off the tracks.
I'm certain there are some police departments that maintain strict
adherence to UCR guidelines. You might even join a police department
in that category. Of course, there's no way of knowing; until, you're on
the inside and privy to the way things are done. It's really pretty
simple. You'll either be held to a high standard for accurately reporting
crime, or you'll receive subtle or overt pressure to ignore or downgrade
crime.
While you're the most important element in crime reporting since it all
starts with you, crime results can still be manipulated down the road by
the formula junkies. The formulas are most useful in reducing reported
crime; however, they can be used to increase crime as well.
Let's say a new police chief is hired, and he or she determines that
crime for the previous year was under reported. Some formula is
concocted to increase selected categories of crime. Now the chief is
competing against an artificially higher crime rate from the previous
year. Fudging the old numbers upward is also easier to justify than
messing around with ongoing crime reporting.
Statistical analysis is extremely important if it's done under systems of
real quality control. You'll often hear those two words - quality control.
Too often, they're just mere words uttered with no actual system in
existence to support them. Accurate statistics also require a continuity
of purpose. You can't continually change the criteria for statistical
tracking, and here's where police departments fail badly. A police
department is a political animal, and it is constantly at the mercy of
political winds and whims.
You'll learn very quickly that somebody is tracking something all the
time, and you'll be expected to provide the statistics. Hopefully, you
won't be subjected to the "this" today and "something else" next week.
If you are...just resign yourself to the inconvenience.
Even when a good system is in place to track useful information, it can
always be manipulated. I once checked the number of arrests for an
officer who'd spent little more than a year on the street before moving
onward and upward. I was amazed to see the officer had made nearly
300 arrests in that short period of time. It got better. Nearly all the
arrests were high quality such as robbery, burglary, rape, etc.
The high arrest number and type standing alone would be impressive;
however, under closer examination, the time frame, quantity and
quality revealed the officer spent more time hanging around the desk
sergeant than working the street. When an arrest warrant would arrive
for a suspect previously arrested on an unrelated charge, the officer
would simply sign for service of the warrant and become the arresting
officer of record. Like this officer, you don't have to break any rules to
manipulate statistics as long as your creativity and motive is not illegal.
High quality statistical compilation and analysis can benefit a police
department in positive ways too many to describe, but it all comes down
to the quality of the people doing the compiling and analysing.
potential for statistical analysis endless. It's too bad no one has found a
way to remove people from the process. People will always be the
determining factor for the accuracy, or near accuracy, of statistical
compilations.
I have to yawn every time I see academic research where crime
statistics are heavily relied upon to validate theories and conclusions.
While most people would agree that academics feel intellectually
superior, and not without reason, they still rely on statistical data
provided by the less intellectual among us.
You would think that since crime is such a critical social issue that
affects everyone to some degree, every police department would make
extraordinary efforts to accurately report crime. In fact, the FBI's
Uniform Crime Reporting System has existed for decades. The system
is superbly designed to accurately classify types and instances of crime
committed in the United States.
While a decentralized police structure is vital for the preservation of a
democratic republic, it performs poorly when it comes to accurately
documenting crimes. First, the UCR is voluntary; although, enough
police departments report via UCR to make the system a good measure
of crime. However, how those police departments report crime
determines its accuracy, and here's where the train goes off the tracks.
I'm certain there are some police departments that maintain strict
adherence to UCR guidelines. You might even join a police department
in that category. Of course, there's no way of knowing; until, you're on
the inside and privy to the way things are done. It's really pretty
simple. You'll either be held to a high standard for accurately reporting
crime, or you'll receive subtle or overt pressure to ignore or downgrade
crime.
While you're the most important element in crime reporting since it all
starts with you, crime results can still be manipulated down the road by
the formula junkies. The formulas are most useful in reducing reported
crime; however, they can be used to increase crime as well.
Let's say a new police chief is hired, and he or she determines that
crime for the previous year was under reported. Some formula is
concocted to increase selected categories of crime. Now the chief is
competing against an artificially higher crime rate from the previous
year. Fudging the old numbers upward is also easier to justify than
messing around with ongoing crime reporting.
Statistical analysis is extremely important if it's done under systems of
real quality control. You'll often hear those two words - quality control.
Too often, they're just mere words uttered with no actual system in
existence to support them. Accurate statistics also require a continuity
of purpose. You can't continually change the criteria for statistical
tracking, and here's where police departments fail badly. A police
department is a political animal, and it is constantly at the mercy of
political winds and whims.
You'll learn very quickly that somebody is tracking something all the
time, and you'll be expected to provide the statistics. Hopefully, you
won't be subjected to the "this" today and "something else" next week.
If you are...just resign yourself to the inconvenience.
Even when a good system is in place to track useful information, it can
always be manipulated. I once checked the number of arrests for an
officer who'd spent little more than a year on the street before moving
onward and upward. I was amazed to see the officer had made nearly
300 arrests in that short period of time. It got better. Nearly all the
arrests were high quality such as robbery, burglary, rape, etc.
The high arrest number and type standing alone would be impressive;
however, under closer examination, the time frame, quantity and
quality revealed the officer spent more time hanging around the desk
sergeant than working the street. When an arrest warrant would arrive
for a suspect previously arrested on an unrelated charge, the officer
would simply sign for service of the warrant and become the arresting
officer of record. Like this officer, you don't have to break any rules to
manipulate statistics as long as your creativity and motive is not illegal.
High quality statistical compilation and analysis can benefit a police
department in positive ways too many to describe, but it all comes down
to the quality of the people doing the compiling and analysing.
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