Daniel Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and a prize-winning
columnist. Domestically, he appears in the New York Sun and the
Philadelphia Evening Bulletin. Abroad, he appears in Israel’s Jerusalem
Post, Italy’s L’Opinione, Spain’s La Razón, the Australian, and Canada’s
Globe and Mail.
His website, DanielPipes.org, is the single most accessed internet source of
specialized information on the Middle East and Islam. It offers an archive of
his work and an opportunity to sign-up to receive e-mails of his writings as
they appear.
The Wall Street Journal calls Mr. Pipes “an authoritative commentator on the
Middle East.” CBS Sunday Morning says he was “years ahead of the curve in
identifying the threat of radical Islam.” “Unnoticed by most Westerners,” he
wrote for example in 1995, “war has been unilaterally declared on Europe
and the United States.” The Boston Globe states that “If Pipes's admonitions
had been heeded, there might never have been a 9/11.”
columnist. Domestically, he appears in the New York Sun and the
Philadelphia Evening Bulletin. Abroad, he appears in Israel’s Jerusalem
Post, Italy’s L’Opinione, Spain’s La Razón, the Australian, and Canada’s
Globe and Mail.
His website, DanielPipes.org, is the single most accessed internet source of
specialized information on the Middle East and Islam. It offers an archive of
his work and an opportunity to sign-up to receive e-mails of his writings as
they appear.
The Wall Street Journal calls Mr. Pipes “an authoritative commentator on the
Middle East.” CBS Sunday Morning says he was “years ahead of the curve in
identifying the threat of radical Islam.” “Unnoticed by most Westerners,” he
wrote for example in 1995, “war has been unilaterally declared on Europe
and the United States.” The Boston Globe states that “If Pipes's admonitions
had been heeded, there might never have been a 9/11.”
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Books by Daniel Pipes...
The future of Europe is in play. Will it turn into "Eurabia," a part of the Muslim world? Will it remain the distinct
cultural unit it has been over the last millennium? Or might there be some creative synthesis of the two
civilizations?
The answer has vast importance. Europe may constitute a mere 7 percent of the world's landmass but for five
hundred years, 1450-1950, for good and ill, it was the global engine of change. How it develops in the future
will affect all humanity, and especially daughter countries such as Australia which still retain close and important
ties to the old continent.
I foresee potentially one of three paths for Europe: Muslims dominating, Muslims rejected, or harmonious
integration.
(1) Muslim domination strikes some analysts as inevitable. Oriana Fallaci found that "Europe becomes more
and more a province of Islam, a colony of Islam." Mark Steyn argues that much of the Western world "will not
survive the twenty-first century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not
most European countries." Such authors point to three factors leading to Europe's Islamization: faith,
demography, and a sense of heritage.
The secularism that predominates in Europe, especially among its elites, leads to alienation about the
Judeo-Christian tradition, empty church pews, and a fascination with Islam. In complete contrast, Muslims
display a religious fervor that translates into jihadi sensibility, a supremacism toward non-Muslims, and an
expectation that Europe is waiting for conversion to Islam.
The contrast in faith also has demographic implications, with Christians having on average 1.4 children per
woman, or about one third less than the number needed to maintain their population, and Muslims enjoying a
dramatically higher, if falling, fertility rate. Amsterdam and Rotterdam are expected to be in about 2015 the first
large majority-Muslim cities. Russia could become a Muslim-majority country in 2050. To employ enough
workers to fund existing pension plans, Europe needs millions of immigrants and these tend to be
disproportionately Muslim due to reasons of proximity, colonial ties, and the turmoil in majority-Muslim countries.
In addition, many Europeans no longer cherish their history, mores, and customs. Guilt about fascism, racism,
and imperialism leave many with a sense that their own culture has less value than that of immigrants. Such self-
disdain has direct implications for Muslim immigrants, for if Europeans shun their own ways, why should
immigrants adopt them? When added to the already-existing Muslim hesitations over much that is Western, and
especially what concerns sexuality, the result are Muslim populations that strongly resist assimilation.
The logic of this first path leads to Europe ultimately becoming an extension of North Africa.
(2) But the first path is not inevitable. Indigenous Europeans could resist it and as they make up 95 percent of
the continent's population, they can at any time reassert control, should they see Muslims posing a threat to a
valued way of life.
This impulse can already be seen at work in the French anti-hijab legislation or in Geert Wilders' film, Fitna.
Anti-immigrant parties gain in strength; a potential nativist movement is taking shape across Europe, as political
parties opposed to immigration focus increasingly on Islam and Muslims. These parties include the British
National Party, Belgium's Vlaamse Belang, France's Front National, the Austrian Freedom Party, the Party for
Freedom in the Netherlands, the Danish People's Party, and the Swedish Democrats.
They will likely continue to grow as immigration surges ever higher, with mainstream parties paying and
expropriating their anti-Islamic message. Should nationalist parties gain power, they will likely seek to reject
multiculturalism, cut back on immigration, encourage repatriation of immigrants, support Christian institutions,
increase indigenous European birthrates, and broadly attempt to re-establish traditional ways.
Muslim alarm will likely follow. American author Ralph Peters sketches a scenario in which "U.S. Navy ships are
at anchor and U.S. Marines have gone ashore at Brest, Bremerhaven or Bari to guarantee the safe evacuation
of Europe's Muslims." Peters concludes that because of European's "ineradicable viciousness," its Muslims "are
living on borrowed time" As Europeans have "perfected genocide and ethnic cleansing," Muslims, he predicts,
"will be lucky just to be deported," rather than killed. Indeed, Muslims worry about just such a fate; since the
1980s, they have spoken overtly about Muslims being sent to gas chambers.
Violence by indigenous Europeans cannot be precluded but nationalist efforts will more likely take place less
violently; if any one is likely to initiate violence, it is the Muslims. They have already engaged in many acts of
violence and seem to be spoiling for more. Surveys indicate, for instance, that about 5 percent of British
Muslims endorse the 7/7 transport bombings. In brief, a European reassertion will likely lead to on-going civil
strife, perhaps a more lethal version of the fall 2005 riots in France.
(3) The ideal outcome has indigenous Europeans and immigrant Muslims finding a way to live together
harmoniously and create a new synthesis. A 1991 study, La France, une chance pour l'Islam (France, an
Opportunity for Islam) by Jeanne-Hélène Kaltenbach and Pierre Patrick Kaltenbach promoted this idealistic
approach. Despite all, this optimism remains the conventional wisdom, as suggested by an Economist leader of
2006 that concluded that dismissed for the moment at least, the prospect of Eurabia as "scaremongering."
This is the view of most politicians, journalists, and academics but it has little basis in reality. Yes indigenous
Europeans could yet rediscover their Christian faith, make more babies, and again cherish their heritage. Yes,
they could encourage non-Muslim immigration and acculturate Muslims already living in Europe. Yes, Muslim
could accept historic Europe. But not only are such developments not now underway, their prospects are dim.
In particular, young Muslims are cultivating grievances and nursing ambitions at odds with their neighbors.
One can virtually dismiss from consideration the prospect of Muslims accepting historic Europe and integrating
within it. U.S. columnist Dennis Prager agrees: "It is difficult to imagine any other future scenario for Western
Europe than its becoming Islamicized or having a civil war."
But which of those two remaining paths will the continent take? Forecasting is difficult because crisis has not yet
struck. But it may not be far off. Within a decade perhaps, the continent's evolution will become clear as the
Europe-Muslim relationship takes shape.
The unprecedented nature of Europe's situation also renders a forecast exceedingly difficult. Never in history
has a major civilization peaceably dissolved, nor has a people ever risen to reclaim its patrimony. Europe's
unique circumstances make them difficult to comprehend, tempting to overlook, and virtually impossible to
predict. With Europe, we all enter into terra incognita.
cultural unit it has been over the last millennium? Or might there be some creative synthesis of the two
civilizations?
The answer has vast importance. Europe may constitute a mere 7 percent of the world's landmass but for five
hundred years, 1450-1950, for good and ill, it was the global engine of change. How it develops in the future
will affect all humanity, and especially daughter countries such as Australia which still retain close and important
ties to the old continent.
I foresee potentially one of three paths for Europe: Muslims dominating, Muslims rejected, or harmonious
integration.
(1) Muslim domination strikes some analysts as inevitable. Oriana Fallaci found that "Europe becomes more
and more a province of Islam, a colony of Islam." Mark Steyn argues that much of the Western world "will not
survive the twenty-first century, and much of it will effectively disappear within our lifetimes, including many if not
most European countries." Such authors point to three factors leading to Europe's Islamization: faith,
demography, and a sense of heritage.
The secularism that predominates in Europe, especially among its elites, leads to alienation about the
Judeo-Christian tradition, empty church pews, and a fascination with Islam. In complete contrast, Muslims
display a religious fervor that translates into jihadi sensibility, a supremacism toward non-Muslims, and an
expectation that Europe is waiting for conversion to Islam.
The contrast in faith also has demographic implications, with Christians having on average 1.4 children per
woman, or about one third less than the number needed to maintain their population, and Muslims enjoying a
dramatically higher, if falling, fertility rate. Amsterdam and Rotterdam are expected to be in about 2015 the first
large majority-Muslim cities. Russia could become a Muslim-majority country in 2050. To employ enough
workers to fund existing pension plans, Europe needs millions of immigrants and these tend to be
disproportionately Muslim due to reasons of proximity, colonial ties, and the turmoil in majority-Muslim countries.
In addition, many Europeans no longer cherish their history, mores, and customs. Guilt about fascism, racism,
and imperialism leave many with a sense that their own culture has less value than that of immigrants. Such self-
disdain has direct implications for Muslim immigrants, for if Europeans shun their own ways, why should
immigrants adopt them? When added to the already-existing Muslim hesitations over much that is Western, and
especially what concerns sexuality, the result are Muslim populations that strongly resist assimilation.
The logic of this first path leads to Europe ultimately becoming an extension of North Africa.
(2) But the first path is not inevitable. Indigenous Europeans could resist it and as they make up 95 percent of
the continent's population, they can at any time reassert control, should they see Muslims posing a threat to a
valued way of life.
This impulse can already be seen at work in the French anti-hijab legislation or in Geert Wilders' film, Fitna.
Anti-immigrant parties gain in strength; a potential nativist movement is taking shape across Europe, as political
parties opposed to immigration focus increasingly on Islam and Muslims. These parties include the British
National Party, Belgium's Vlaamse Belang, France's Front National, the Austrian Freedom Party, the Party for
Freedom in the Netherlands, the Danish People's Party, and the Swedish Democrats.
They will likely continue to grow as immigration surges ever higher, with mainstream parties paying and
expropriating their anti-Islamic message. Should nationalist parties gain power, they will likely seek to reject
multiculturalism, cut back on immigration, encourage repatriation of immigrants, support Christian institutions,
increase indigenous European birthrates, and broadly attempt to re-establish traditional ways.
Muslim alarm will likely follow. American author Ralph Peters sketches a scenario in which "U.S. Navy ships are
at anchor and U.S. Marines have gone ashore at Brest, Bremerhaven or Bari to guarantee the safe evacuation
of Europe's Muslims." Peters concludes that because of European's "ineradicable viciousness," its Muslims "are
living on borrowed time" As Europeans have "perfected genocide and ethnic cleansing," Muslims, he predicts,
"will be lucky just to be deported," rather than killed. Indeed, Muslims worry about just such a fate; since the
1980s, they have spoken overtly about Muslims being sent to gas chambers.
Violence by indigenous Europeans cannot be precluded but nationalist efforts will more likely take place less
violently; if any one is likely to initiate violence, it is the Muslims. They have already engaged in many acts of
violence and seem to be spoiling for more. Surveys indicate, for instance, that about 5 percent of British
Muslims endorse the 7/7 transport bombings. In brief, a European reassertion will likely lead to on-going civil
strife, perhaps a more lethal version of the fall 2005 riots in France.
(3) The ideal outcome has indigenous Europeans and immigrant Muslims finding a way to live together
harmoniously and create a new synthesis. A 1991 study, La France, une chance pour l'Islam (France, an
Opportunity for Islam) by Jeanne-Hélène Kaltenbach and Pierre Patrick Kaltenbach promoted this idealistic
approach. Despite all, this optimism remains the conventional wisdom, as suggested by an Economist leader of
2006 that concluded that dismissed for the moment at least, the prospect of Eurabia as "scaremongering."
This is the view of most politicians, journalists, and academics but it has little basis in reality. Yes indigenous
Europeans could yet rediscover their Christian faith, make more babies, and again cherish their heritage. Yes,
they could encourage non-Muslim immigration and acculturate Muslims already living in Europe. Yes, Muslim
could accept historic Europe. But not only are such developments not now underway, their prospects are dim.
In particular, young Muslims are cultivating grievances and nursing ambitions at odds with their neighbors.
One can virtually dismiss from consideration the prospect of Muslims accepting historic Europe and integrating
within it. U.S. columnist Dennis Prager agrees: "It is difficult to imagine any other future scenario for Western
Europe than its becoming Islamicized or having a civil war."
But which of those two remaining paths will the continent take? Forecasting is difficult because crisis has not yet
struck. But it may not be far off. Within a decade perhaps, the continent's evolution will become clear as the
Europe-Muslim relationship takes shape.
The unprecedented nature of Europe's situation also renders a forecast exceedingly difficult. Never in history
has a major civilization peaceably dissolved, nor has a people ever risen to reclaim its patrimony. Europe's
unique circumstances make them difficult to comprehend, tempting to overlook, and virtually impossible to
predict. With Europe, we all enter into terra incognita.
| Europe or Eurabia? |
by Daniel Pipes
Australian
April 15, 2008
Australian
April 15, 2008